By using the Trigger Bet Calculator, you can ensure that you make a guaranteed profit from a trigger bet offer.
To find out more about trigger bet offers and how they can be played, please read our Trigger Bet Guide.
The Trigger Bet Calculator accommodates different options of calculating your trigger lay stake and profit, all of which will be explained in this guide.
In the screenshot below, you can see what the calculator looks like with all the details filled in.
As an example, we have used a ‘Bore Draw’ offer, with a free bet award of up to €20 if the game ends 0-0.
We are therefore placing a back stake of €20 on a qualifying selection, laying the bet as normal, and then we place a trigger lay bet against the game ending 0-0.
Note: as explained in our Trigger Bet Guide, our qualifying bet cannot be on 0-0 or a draw, as that would mean our bet would win if the game ended 0-0, and we would not get the free bet.
Blue Back SectionBack Stake: for an offer giving you a free bet equal to the value of your qualifying bet, up to €20, your back stake would be €20. Back Odds: enter the bookmaker odds. Free Bet Award: the value of your potential free bet, in this case €20. Free Bet Retention: the profit you expect to retain from the free bet, as a percentage of the value of the free bet. As explained in our guide Why do I not make €10 when I have a €10 free bet?, you can generally expect to make a profit of 70% to 80% of the value of a free bet (depending on factors like the odds available at the time you place the free bet or whether or not the bookmaker charges the betting tax). Some bookmakers have offers where you get your stake back not as a free bet, but as ‘cash’. If that is the case, set the free bet retention to 100%. In our example, we have chosen 75%. Back Commission: enter 5% if your bookmaker deducts the German betting tax.
Pink Lay SectionLay Odds: enter the betting exchange odds for your selection. Lay Commission: the commission charged by your betting exchange. We are using Matchbook, so we have entered 1.7%. Lay Stake: this will be worked out for you by the calculator and is exactly the same as your normal lay stake that would be worked out by the normal MB calculator. Liability: your liability with the betting exchange in case your lay bet loses. Remember that your back bet would win in that case, and you can see more details about the amounts in the profit breakdown section explained below.
Grey Trigger Bet Lay SectionMethod: in the drop-down menu, you can choose between ‘Normal’, ‘Underlay’, ‘Overlay’ and ‘No Lay’, as shown in the screenshot below. I will explain further how to choose between the different methods later in this guide.
Lay Commission: enter the commission charged by your betting exchange. You may be using a different betting exchange for the trigger lay bet (for example if the exact score market is not available on Matchbook), and it is useful therefore to be able to enter a different lay commission. In our example, we have entered 3%. Lay Odds: enter the betting exchange odds for the trigger, i.e. whatever the lay odds are at your betting exchange for the exact score 0-0. Liability: this will show your liability for the trigger lay bet, in case it loses (which means you will get your free bet from the bookmaker). Lay Stake: the amount you should place with your betting exchange to lay the trigger. In this case, you will be laying the exact score 0-0.
Profit Breakdown Section
In this section, you will see detailed amounts of all the possible outcomes of your bets.If Bet Wins: there is only one line for ‘If Bet Wins’, because if your back bet wins, this automatically means that your trigger lay bet wins too, as the two outcomes are mutually exclusive. If you have placed your back bet on an outcome other than a draw or 0-0, and it wins, the score cannot be 0-0, and so your trigger lay bet will have won. And because the score was not 0-0, you don’t get your free bet. In the Bookmaker column, you can see your winnings from the back bet, minus any back commission, and in the exchange column, your liability from the qualifying lay bet is shown. The trigger lay bet column shows your win from the trigger lay bet, minus trigger lay commission. If Bet Loses and Trigger Wins: shows your lost back stake, the lay stake you won (minus lay commission), and as the trigger won (the score was 0-0), you also lose your trigger lay stake, but you get your free bet from the bookmaker. If Bet Loses and Trigger Loses: shows your lost back stake, the lay stake you won (minus lay commission), and as the trigger lost (the score was not 0-0), you win your trigger lay bet (minus trigger lay commission), but you don’t get your free bet. Total column: the total of the respective row is shown here. In the ‘Normal’ mode, the totals will be the same for all possible outcomes, and different totals will result in the ‘Underlay’, ‘Overlay’ and ‘No Lay’ modes. This will be further explained in the next section.
Choosing between the different methodsNormal method: if you choose this method, you will have equal profits no matter whether the trigger wins or loses.
Underlay method: with this method, you only make a profit if the trigger happens. If it doesn’t, your profit/loss will be zero.
Overlay method: with this method, you only make a profit if the trigger doesn’t happen. If it does, your profit/loss will be zero.
No lay method: with this method, you will have a qualifying loss if the trigger doesn’t happen, and if it does happen, you will have the profit from the free bet minus your qualifying loss. As you can see, this will potentially result in the highest profit.
How do you choose between the different methods? This would depend on your personal risk appetite, and also how likely you think it is that a certain trigger will happen. If you think it is likely to happen, then you could try the underlay method, as this will potentially result in a higher profit than if you were using the normal method.
If however you think that the trigger will probably not happen, you might want to choose the overlay method. The no lay method may be your only option if the trigger cannot be laid, for example if the exact score market is not available at the betting exchange.
If you have any questions about this guide, please visit the Forum.