This calculator is used to make risk-free, guaranteed profit from a ‘Bet x and get an x free bet if it loses’ offer.
These risk-free bet offers are explained further in our guide Bet €x and get a free bet of €x if it loses. Of the four strategies explained in that guide, it is the first one, ‘Strategy 1 – Risk free equal profit (risk free)’ that you would use the Risk-Free Equal Profit Calculator for.
In the screenshot below, you can see what the calculator looks like with all the details filled in.
A common example of a risk-free bet offer is one where you need to place at least €10, and if that qualifying bet loses, you will get a free bet of €10.
Grey ‘Enter Bet Details’ Section
Back Stake: for an offer potentially giving you a free bet equal to the value of your qualifying bet, up to €10, your back stake would be €10.
Back Odds: enter the bookmaker odds.
Back Commission: enter 5% if your bookmaker deducts the German betting tax.
Lay Odds: enter the betting exchange odds for your selection.
Free Bet Award: the value of your potential free bet, in this case €10.
Lay Commission: the commission charged by your betting exchange. We used Matchbook (not available in Germany anymore now), so we have entered 1.7%.
Free Bet Retention: the profit you expect to retain from the free bet, as a percentage of the value of the free bet. As explained in our guide Why do I not make €10 when I have a €10 free bet?, you can generally expect to make a profit of 70% to 80% of the value of a free bet (depending on factors like the odds available at the time you place the free bet or whether or not the bookmaker charges the betting tax). Some bookmakers have offers where you get your stake back not as a free bet, but as ‘cash’. If that is the case, set the free bet retention to 100%. In our example, we have chosen 75%.
Pink ‘Ideal Lay’ Section
Lay Stake: this will be worked out for you by the calculator.
Liability: your liability with the betting exchange in case your lay bet loses. If your lay bet loses, your loss will be lower than your profit from the winning back bet, so you will end up with an overall profit, even though you will not get your free bet. You can see more details about the amounts in the profit breakdown section explained below.
Profit Breakdown Section
In this section, you will see detailed amounts of the possible outcomes of your bet.
If Bet Wins (Bookie Wins): shows your winnings from the bookmaker, minus back commission, and your exchange loss (your liability). No free bet because your back bet won.
If Bet Loses (Exchange Wins): shows your lost back stake, the lay stake you won (minus lay commission), and the estimated value of the free bet you get from the bookmaker.
Note: You still need to place your free bet now to actually get the estimated €7.50 profit. So don’t forget to make a note reminding you to get and place the free bet in case your first bet loses. A good way of keeping track of things like that is our Matched Betting Profit Tracker Spread Sheet (available to download in this Guide), which contains a section where you can list all your outstanding free bets.
Total column: the totals of the respective rows are shown here. As you can see, they are exactly the same, which is what you’re aiming for when using this strategy for risk-free bets.
If you have any questions about this guide, please visit the Forum.