CAUTION: the techniques introduced in this guide contain complicated calculations and should only be attempted by experienced Matched Bettors.
Or have you perhaps disregarded them because you did not want to run the risk of having to turn over €2,000, €3,000 or even €4,000?
Then read on! This guide contains the answer to the question we are always being asked, how you can play through these bonus offers risk-free and especially with a guaranteed profit, regardless of the outcome of your bets.
The Extreme Underlaying technique was developed by DoppelWetten member Dennis, and this guide was created with his help.
In this guide, we are assuming that you are already familiar with the Underlaying technique.
Underlaying is a fantastic method for rollover offers that enables you to ensure that you start the rollover with a bonus that is still intact, if your first bet wins with the bookmaker.
But even if you still have your entire bonus, with a wagering requirement of for example €1,000, and a loss, thanks to the German betting tax and the lay commission, of approximately €10 per €100 bet, you might not have too much left of your bonus eventually.
And there are also those enormous wagering requirements like 10 times deposit plus bonus, which easily brings you to €2,000, for a bonus of €100.
Reload offers often have similar wagering requirements to welcome bonuses, with the bonus often just 50%, for example, of the deposit amount.
What all these scenarios have in common is that the profit that we make from the offers is extremely variable, because it depends on whether or not we win the first bet, and even with higher odds, it’s far from guaranteed that our back bet will lose.
So what can we do to eliminate this uncertainty and ensure even before placing the first bet that we will come out of the offer with a profit, no matter how many bets we need to place?
The ‘Extreme Underlaying’ Approach – Step by Step Guide
1First you need to determine what your likely loss is going to be if you have to fulfil the entire remaining wagering requirement.
We generally assume a loss of €10 per €100 bet. If the respective bookmaker does not charge the German betting tax, we can assume a loss of €5.
If the bookmaker has above average odds, we could reduce the expected loss even further. We are going to go through some examples further below.
2To determine the expected loss, you have to divide the remaining wagering requirement by the amount of the individual bets, and then multiply that with the loss per bet.
For example: with a remaining wagering of €800 (10 x the amount of the bonus of €100 minus the first bet of €200) and an expected loss of €10 per €100 bet, this results in an expected loss of €80. €800 / €100 * €10 = €80. We will need this amount for the underlay settings in the Oddsmatcher calculator (see examples below).
3The amount of the bonus and what percentage it is on the deposit, as well as the amount of the deposit, are not relevant for the calculations.
4Now we look for the best matches in the Oddsmatcher as normal, but entering minimum odds of 3,00 in the filter, because we want to lose the first bet if possible. Also, the difference between the plus and minus values (see Point 6 further down) is too small with lower odds. Using higher odds, we can maximise our guaranteed profit.
5Then we choose a suitable game.
6We enter the amount of our bet in the Oddsmatcher calculator. If there is no maximum amount per bet for the offer, we stake the whole amount of deposit plus bonus. Then we click on ‘Erweiterter Modus‘.
7Now we move the slider to the left until the green amount (Wette beim Buchmacher gewinnt) and the red amount (Laywette bei der Wettbörse gewinnt) add up to the expected loss (see Point 2 above) as precisely as possible.
Tip: you might need to change the amount that is pre-set in the little box at the bottom left to a lower amount.
Deposit €100, Bonus €100, Wagering Requirement €2,000
The remaining wagering after the first bet is €1,800, and the expected loss from this (see Step 2 above) is €180. €128.38 + €51.61 = €179.99.
If the first bet loses, we will have made a profit of €48.39 (€100 bonus – €51.61).
If the first bet wins, we will initially have a plus of €128.38, but then need to fulfil the wagering requirement, i.e. €100 bonus + €128.38 – €180 = €48.38.
Deposit €200, Bonus €100, Wagering Requirement €1,200
The remaining wagering after the first bet is €900, and the expected loss from this is €90. €32.33 + €57.67 = €90.
If the first bet loses, we will have made a profit of €42.33 (€100 bonus – €57.67).
If the first bet wins, we will initially have a plus of €32.33, but then need to fulfil the wagering requirement, i.e. €100 bonus + €32.33 – €90 = €42.33.
Deposit €200, Bonus €200, Wagering Requirement €4,000, Bookmaker does not charge any betting tax
The remaining wagering after the first bet is €3,600, and the expected loss from this is €144 (I assumed a loss of €4 per bet because the odds are very good with this bookmaker, and no betting tax is deducted). €78.88 + €65.11 = €143.99.
If the first bet loses, we will have made a profit of €134.89 (€200 bonus – €65.11).
If the first bet wins, we will initially have a plus of €78.88, but then need to fulfil the wagering requirement, i.e. €200 bonus + €78.88 – €144 = €134.88.
As mentioned above, it is very important with this technique to choose somewhat higher odds because this will lead to a smaller loss if the first bet loses and at the same time a bigger profit if the first bet wins.
What if the first bet wins, but you still do not have to play through the entire rollover in the end? Even better! Then you will have more profit left at the end, because we already took precautions to cover the loss from the entire rollover when we placed our first bet.
If you have any questions about this guide, please ask them in the Forum.