Guest Blog Post from Charlie’s Daily Tips
Hello German matched bettors! Charlie here from Matched Betting Plus, based in the UK. We set up around a year ago to assist people through the transitional stage of basic reload offers to more intermediate live reload offers. Understanding betting markets and ultimately how to exploit them is such a unique skill, hence we wanted to make it accessible to anybody. Although the German and UK matched betting landscape is vastly different, there are certainly practices we can take from each other to improve our knowledge. I shall breakdown the key similarities and differences below whilst also outlining some hints and tips we use in the UK!
In the UK we have 4 betting exchange platforms, all with varying advantages and disadvantages. Some have more liquidity than others – whilst it is also possible to get 0% commission on both Smarkets and Matchbook – this saves us a fortune! However, it’s not all sunshine in the UK (no pun intended), legislation has certainly increased regarding the information exchanges can request from us. Previously in the UK, we saw the betting exchanges as our friends, now they can be quite scrupulous with the information they require from us (i.e. profit/loss from bookmakers; evidence of corresponding back bets; and proof of alternative forms of income). However, if there’s one characteristic us matched bettors all have, it’s the defiant nature to find solutions, whether that’s using alternative exchanges or dutching to other bookmakers, we have done it! How do our sign up offers differ? From what I can gather the German market is based largely around generous deposit bonuses as opposed to smaller bet/get type offers in the UK (of course we do have some deposit bonuses, but most bookmakers offer free bet concessions). We are incredibly jealous of you guys here as we have to celebrate the smaller wins a little more…
Of course, it would be unwise to try to predict the future but due to the infancy of the German market in comparison to the UK, you guys are certainly in a great position. The bookmakers will be aware that they are conceding value to matched bettors but proportionately the amount of people to do so is relatively small, hence they haven’t seen a need to slash promotions. In the UK we now have several corporations working tirelessly with gambling companies to mitigate against matched betting in the form of greater KYC checks (Know Your Customer), more effectively tracking value and even answering Google questions to deter people from getting involved. Quite simply, if you are undecided about getting involved in Germany there is no better time than the present!
Right now, it’s time to tell you about all the extremely profitable bets in the UK! The bookmakers over the past few years have undergone major cosmetic and marketing-related changes. They are all designed to short-change the average punter, but luckily, as savvy value hunters we play them at their own game. Our daily schedule consists of numerous price boosts and early pay-out offers. Price boosts are essentially enhanced markets that we can directly lay on the exchange. Plenty of the bookmakers do try to confuse the average matched bettor, but that’s where we step in. Here’s an example, a few weeks ago Paddy Power enhanced Cilic (tennis) to win the match and both players to win a set. The match was a best of 5 tie so we knew the only way this bet could win would be by Cilic winning either 3-1 or 3-2. We could then utilise a multi-lay calculator to calculate the ‘true odds’ using the lay price on 3-1 and 3-2 then lay accordingly. With regards to early pay-out offers, these come in a variety of formats. Some bookmakers will pay out as if the bet has won if your team goes 2 goals ahead and we even have 1 bookmaker that will pay out if your side scores first within 10 minutes (picture our faces when we backed Crystal Palace at odds of 19 against Manchester City a few weeks ago). Ultimately, there’s loads of really easy offers
to complete each day but for those wanting the take it to the next level, understanding how bookmakers package value is a huge help!
We personally feel the UK market is in quite a transitional stage now. It’s dealing with the ever-growing legislative presence while directly competing with value betting on numerous fronts. For those unaware, value betting is a somewhat related concept. It’s taking bets high in value (priced above what they should be) and backing them only. In essence you are beating the bookmakers at their own game – as matched bettors, we prefer the risk-free approach, value bettors accept the variance. Here’s the stalemate, understanding this logic is not just something that comes to you overnight, you have most likely come from a matched betting background – meaning it’s highly likely you have exhausted your
bookmaker accounts (been banned). This means these people turn to exchanges to push cash through at high prices. Just like anything sales-related, there’s a battle between supply and demand. Let’s give you an example; Bet 365 have boosted Borussia Dortmund to score in both halves to 3.5. Your expertise (whether it’s by comparing bookmaker prices or using value betting software) informs you the bet should be priced at 3.0. Value bettors will be attempting to back this as close to 3.5 as possible on the exchange meaning there’s very little room for us to lay whilst still having a half decent underlay potential. Note there are vast differences here between liquid and illiquid markets. Therefore, at Matched Betting Plus we do not just focus on getting offers out to people, we also want to educate about value. I thoroughly hope you’ve managed to pick up a few nuggets from this article. From my personal expertise you can learn so much from different geographical markets. You guys are in the top 1% of people taking cash from the bookmakers every day. Be alert to new opportunities, overcome barriers (if gambling is around so will matched betting) and most importantly roll over those profits again and again!
Thanks for taking your time to read this insight. If you ever decide to relocate to the UK, then be sure to come earn some tax-free profits with us!