Does mug betting work?
Very few topics split the opinion of Matched Bettors like mug betting.
Does mug betting work?
At the start of 2019 Beating Betting conducted an experiment to settle the argument once and for all.
20 test persons were split into two groups. One group would include mug betting while Matched Betting and the other group would not do any mug betting.
The test focused on 10 different bookmakers to get comparable data. The bookmakers were; Bet365, Paddy Power, SkyBet, Betfred, Ladbrokes, Coral, William Hill, 888, Betfair and BetVictor.
And the result?
Source and credit: beatingbetting.co.uk
Number of gubbings
Overall the mug betting group received 11 account gubbings or an average of 1,1 accounts per test person. 3 test persons didn’t receive any gubbings and 4 test persons had 4 gubbings in the test period.
On the other hand, the non-mug betting group had 31 accounts gubbed, which equals an average of 3,1 accounts per test person. 2 test persons had 5 accounts gubbed.
The evidence suggest that non-mug bettors do get their accounts restricted at a much faster rate than mug bettors.The evidence suggest that non-mug bettors do get their accounts restricted at a much faster rate than mug bettors. Click To Tweet
Gubbings per bookmaker
So which bookmaker was the fastest to gub the test accounts?
Of the 10 bookmakers included in the test, BetVictor was the bookmaker that handed out most gubbings. In total 8 BetVictor accounts were gubbed. 2 of those were mug betting accounts and 6 from non-mug bettors.
In a dubious second place came Bet365 with a total of 5 gubbings. All 5 were non-mug betting accounts.
It is quite surprising that Bet365 handed out the second highest number of gubbings as they are not known for being a fast gubbing bookmaker.
Difference in profit?
One of the most common arguments against mug betting is that you will earn less profit. Please note in this connection that you should never use high ratings for mug bets. Bookmakers know which odds represent value and are likely to gub you just for that reason!
While non-mug bettors had higher profit, which was also expected as they did not have the qualifying loses from the mug bets, the difference in monthly earnings was only 8%.
An influencing factor is that you may receive loyalty bonuses and other offers, including free bets, when you place more bets.
Credit goes to Beating Betting for all the work that has gone into conducting this test.
For Matched Bettors this is very interesting as the test does conclude that mug betting works.
Surprisingly, the difference in profit was only 8%, which will easily be earned back by keeping your bookmaker accounts alive for longer.
Also, read our guide on how to avoid gubbing.