Avoid gambling
Matched Betting is not gambling.
Matched Betting is a structured and calculated way to place bets to earn money from bookmaker offers and bonuses.
Here at DoppelWetten we do not promote gambling.
To do Matched Betting you need to use the bookmakers.
This is where you have to be careful!
Bookmaker offers are designed to lure you in and make you gamble.
Naturally, they do not want people to do Matched Betting as they are likely to lose out on profit. They will do everything to make you bet in an unstructured and miscalculated way. This is gambling and how they make their money.
This guide gives you some tips on how to avoid gambling. It is my own experience with gambling that makes me want to warn you. I lost several thousand euros to gambling and basically lost everything I had made in Matched Betting over many months.
You are always welcome to share your story in the Forum.
The occasional punt is ok
It is not the end of the world if you like a punt once in a while.
However, gambling is not promoted on this site. There are loads of sites that provide you with free or paid tips. Especially Twitter is overflowing with “experts” that promise you a guaranteed profit.
Please take exceptional caution as the vast majority have no interest in making you money and do not care if their tips win or lose. All they want is that you sign up via their bookmaker affiliate links. If you do so, they actually make money if you lose.
Don’t lose track of the value of money
When the cash starts flowing in, it is very easy to get caught up or lose track of the value of money. Especially casino offers are designed to make people gamble. You may start thinking to yourself “I’ll just have a few more spins on the roulette” even though you have completed the Matched Betting offer.
Let’s make one thing clear – you cannot beat the casino in any of the casino games.
Of course people will win at times.
However, over time it is mathematically impossible to win and the vast majority of people in a casino will lose money. A slot machine typically has a RTP (return to player) percentage of 95%. This means for every €100 played on the machine it will pay out €95. Some slots have higher RTP and some lower. Some players will win and some will lose. However, which player wins and which player loses is completely at random.
Gambler’s fallacy
A common mistake amongst gamblers is the gambler’s fallacy.
Gambler’s fallacy is the mistaken belief that, if something happens more frequently than normal during a period of time, it will happen less frequently in the future. Or that, if something happens less frequently than normal during some period, it will happen more frequently in the future (presumably as a means of balancing nature). The gambler’s fallacy is best shown by an example of a coin toss.
The probability of getting heads in a single toss is exactly ½ (one in two) or 50%. Now suppose that we have just tossed four heads in a row. If the next coin toss were also to come up heads, it would complete a run of five successive heads. The probability of a run of five successive heads is only 1/32 (one in thirty-two) or 3%. A person subject to the gambler’s fallacy might believe that this next flip was less likely to be heads than to be tails. However, this is not correct.
This is a manifestation of the gambler’s fallacy; the event of five heads in a row and the event of “first four heads, then a tail” are equally likely, each having a probability 1/32. Given that the first four tosses turn up heads, the probability that the next toss is a head is in fact, ½ (one in two) or 50%.
